Monday, September 30, 2013

Data for the week 28-Sep-13 to 04-Oct-13

Exp.: Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior: Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today: Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year: Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price: This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual: Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 28-Sep-13 to 04-Oct-13
Date Time (IST) Country Data Exp. Prior Exp. chg today Avg. chg of last 1 year Exp. Impact on Price
30-Sep-2013 07-15 AM China HSBC Manufacturing PMI 51.2 50.1 1.10 0.89 Good
30-Sep-2013 05-00 PM India Trade Deficit - RBI   -45.6B   3.67  
 
01-Oct-2013 06-30 AM China NBS Manufacturing PMI 51.5 51.0 0.50 0.77 Neutral
01-Oct-2013 01-18 PM France Markit Manufacturing PMI 49.5 49.7 -0.20 1.53 Neutral
01-Oct-2013 01-23 PM Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI 51.3 51.8 -0.50 1.37 Neutral
01-Oct-2013 01-25 PM Germany Unemployment Change -5K 7K -12.00 10.36 Good
01-Oct-2013 02-00 PM United Kingdom UK - BOE Financial Policy Committee Publishes Stress Test Paper          
01-Oct-2013 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Unemployment Rate 12.1% 12.1% 0.00% 0.12 Neutral
01-Oct-2013 07-30 PM United States ISM Manufacturing PMI 55.8 55.7 0.10 1.35 Neutral
 
02-Oct-2013 05-15 PM European Monetary Union ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5% 0.00% 0.06 Neutral
02-Oct-2013 06-00 PM European Monetary Union ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference          
02-Oct-2013 08-00 PM United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change   2.635M   3.45  
 
03-Oct-2013 06-30 AM United States Fed's Bernanke Speech          
03-Oct-2013 01-18 PM France Markit Services PMI 50.7 48.9 1.80 1.90 Neutral
03-Oct-2013 07-30 PM United States Factory Orders (MoM) 0.7% -2.4% 3.10% 3.36 Neutral
03-Oct-2013 08-00 PM United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change   87B   33.60  
 
04-Oct-2013 06-00 PM United States Nonfarm Payrolls 179K 169K 10.00 43.00 Neutral
04-Oct-2013 06-00 PM United States Unemployment Rate 7.3% 7.3% 0.00% 0.13 Neutral


Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Global Comex, Indian Mcx Gold Prices: The Arbitrage Opportunity

In dollar terms, and minus strong external stimuli, the Indian and global gold prices should be aligned - because the Indian price is set by the global price. However, when there are strong external factors, the Indian price in dollars can be different from the global price. That difference opens up the possibility of arbitrage. 

The chart below shows global and Indian gold prices (in dollar terms) from January 2012 on-wards  Indian prices in dollars have been higher in some periods - thanks mainly to duties on gold imposed by the government. For those with trading acumen, these differences on a daily basis are arbitrage opportunities in a global market.


MCX, Comex Gold, The arbitrage opportunity Import Duty, Indian Rupee Currency Movement

Monday, September 23, 2013

MCX Copper Crude Oil Natural Gas Zinc

The MCX Copper contract was broadly ranged between the support at Rs 450 and resistance at Rs 470 in the past week. There is a double top pattern on the daily candle chart and the resistance at Rs 470 which has held well last week is the neckline of this pattern. Having said this, failure to rise above Rs 470 could keep the contract under pressure and can take it down to Rs 450 initially. An eventual break below Rs 450 can then drag the contract further lower to Rs 430 which is the target level of the double top pattern. On the other hand, an immediate decisive break above the resistance at Rs 470 will take the contract higher to Rs 500-510.
Crude Oil (Rs 6,637)
The MCX Crude Oil contract has come down sharply over the last few weeks from the high of Rs 7,784 recorded on August 28. However, the contract is nearing its significant trend line supports at Rs 6,400 and Rs 6,300 which can be tested in the coming week. An immediate fall below Rs 6,300 might not be very easy. As such the downside could be limited to Rs 6,300 and there are good chances for the contract to rebound from the Rs 6,400-6,300 support zone in the coming weeks which can take it back to Rs 7,000 levels.
If the contract falls below Rs 6,300, then the current downtrend can continue and the contract can target Rs 5,850 on the downside.
Natural Gas (Rs 231.4)
The MCX Natural Gas contract has been moving in a good uptrend channel over the last one year. Within this channel, the contract is currently sloping down from the resistance near Rs 260. Immediate resistance at Rs 240 which has held well last week. As such this short-term downtrend can continue and the contract can fall to Rs 210-200 in the coming weeks. A strong break above Rs 240 is required to avoid this fall. But seeing the price action over the last two weeks an immediate break above Rs 240 does not look likely. However, from Rs 210-200, the contract can begin a fresh leg of up move targeting Rs 260-270 on the upside.
Zinc (Rs 115.3)
The MCX Zinc contract has come off sharply from the high of Rs 136.9 over the last few weeks. Immediate support is at Rs 114 which needs to hold to avoid further fall. A bounce from the support at Rs 114 can take the contract higher to Rs 120 in the coming week. Zinc has important resistance at Rs 120 and a failure to rise further beyond this resistance would continue to keep the contract under pressure. On the other hand, if the contract falls below Rs 114 immediately, then the current downtrend would continue targeting the next significant support at Rs 110 .

FMC may allow late trading in agri commodities.

Commodity markets regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC), may allow late evening trading in agri commodities to increase market participation.

“We are discussing with exchanges and other trade participants as to how we can start late-evening trading in agriculture commodities as some spot markets remain open till 8 p.m.,” FMC Chairman Ramesh Abhishek said.
At present, late evening trading is allowed in metals and energy products till 8 p.m., where prices follow global markets.

Commodity exchanges have been demanding longer trading hours in sugar and soybean as against the present 10 a.m to 5 p.m slot.

Commodities prices to take a hit when US tapering begins.



Prices of commodities could head south as soon as the US Federal Reserve begins to cut its $85 billion-a-month stimulus programme as hedge funds and money managers will cash out, a global seminar on edible oils was told on Saturday. “Currently, interest rates are near zero and at the bottom. But once the tapering happens and the interestrates go up, money managers and hedge funds will switch over to other gainful investments such as bonds,” said James Fry, Chairman, LMC International, London.
“It is a bad decision on the part of the US Fed not to taper its stimulus plan. Sooner or later, it has to begin and it will suck out the liquidity in the commodities market,” said Dorab Mistry, Director of Godrej International.
“Returns have to be higher than the rate of inflation. Therefore, bonds will tend to give higher returns. All those people who have found value in commodities will switch over,” Fry said on the sidelines of Globoil India 2013.

BIO-FUEL USE

Earlier, in his address at the business session, Fry said that currently, crude palm oil was being supported in South-East Asia, particularly Indonesia, through use as bio-fuel. “The use of palm oil as bio-fuel is helping it to rule at a small premium over Brent crude in Europe, though in Asia, it is at a discount to the latter,” he said.
Indonesia has announced plans to produce 3 million tonnes of bio-diesel next year and in 2015. This could provide support to prices of palm oil and other vegetable oils.
However, things could change if Brent crude oil prices drop.
“There are a few pointers to why crude oil prices will come under pressure.
The US is adding a million barrels to its supplies every year and shale gas is emerging as a real threat,” the expert said.

SHALE CONVERSION

Currently, the cost of producing shale gas equivalent to a barrel of crude works out to $20 in the US and $50 in Europe.
“There are plants coming up to convert shale gas into required fuel,” said Fry, adding that interest in using bio-fuel in the US and the EU is waning.
With palm oil heading for peak production season, its stocks could rise to 2.2 million tonnes by November-end and it would not reach last year’s level of 2.6 million tonnes.
Crude palm oil could rule between MYR 2,250 ($710) and MYR 2,500 ($790) a tonne towards the year-end, while rapeseed, sunflower and soya bean oils could drop to lower than $1,000.
Meanwhile, during a price outlook session at the meet, soya bean production in the country was estimated between 110 lakh tonnes and 140 lakh tonnes.
While some experts put it at the lower end, others such as Atul Chaturvedi, CEO, Adani Wilmar, pegged it at the higher end.
Soya bean oil prices could drop by Rs 20-40 for 10 kg, while soyameal prices could also fall to levels of Rs 31,000 before the year-end.

“Once the tapering happens and interest rates go up, money managers and hedge funds will switch over to other gainful investments such as bonds,” said James Fry, Chairman, LMC International, London.

Weekly Economic Data for the week 21-Sep-13 to 27-Sep-13

Exp.:Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior:Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today:Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year:Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price:This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very GoodGoodNeutralBadVery Bad
Actual:Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 21-Sep-13 to 27-Sep-13
DateTime (IST)CountryDataExp.PriorExp. chg todayAvg. chg of last 1 yearExp. Impact on Price
23-Sep-201301-28 PMEuropean Monetary UnionMarkit Manufacturing PMI51.751.40.300.80Neutral
23-Sep-201306-30 PMEuropean Monetary UnionECB President Draghi's Speech     
 
24-Sep-201307-30 PMUnited StatesConsumer Confidence8081.5-1.504.00Neutral
 
25-Sep-201306-00 PMUnited StatesDurable Goods Orders-.20%-7.3%7.10%6.72Neutral
25-Sep-201307-30 PMUnited StatesNew Home Sales (MoM)420k394k26.00k0.01Good
25-Sep-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Crude Oil Stocks change -4.368M 3.45 
 
26-Sep-201306-00 PMUnited StatesGross Domestic Product Annualized2.60%2.50%0.10%1.11Neutral
26-Sep-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Natural Gas Storage change 46B 33.60 
 
27-Sep-201302-30 PMEuropean Monetary UnionECB President Draghi's Speech     
27-Sep-201307-25 PMUnited StatesReuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index78.276.81.402.48Neutral

Monday, September 16, 2013

Data for the week 14-Sep-13 to 20-Sep-13

Exp.: Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior: Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today: Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year: Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price: This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very Good Good Neutral Bad Very Bad
Actual: Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 14-Sep-13 to 20-Sep-13
Date Time (IST) Country Data Exp. Prior Exp. chg today Avg. chg of last 1 year Exp. Impact on Price
14-Sep-2013 12-30 PM European Monetary Union EU Finance Ministers Meet in Vilnius, Lithuania          
 
16-Sep-2013 12-00 PM India WPI Inflation 5.70% 5.79% -0.09% 0.38 Neutral
16-Sep-2013 01-30 PM European Monetary Union Mario Draghi Speaks in Berlin          
16-Sep-2013 02-30 PM European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) 1.3% 1.3% 0.00% 0.05 Neutral
16-Sep-2013 06-45 PM United States Industrial Production (MoM) 0.4% 0.0% 0.40% 0.97 Neutral
 
17-19-Sep-2013 - United States Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting          
17-Sep-2013 02-00 PM United Kingdom Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.7% 2.8% -0.10% 0.20 Neutral
17-Sep-2013 02-00 PM United Kingdom Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.5% 0.0% 0.50% 0.45 Good
17-Sep-2013 02-30 PM Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment 45 42 3.00 12.25 Neutral
17-Sep-2013 06-00 PM United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.2% 0.2% 0.00% 0.26 Neutral
 
18-Sep-2013 02-00 PM United Kingdom Bank of England Minutes          
18-Sep-2013 08-00 PM United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change   -0.219M   3.45  
18-Sep-2013 11-30 PM United States Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.00% 0.00 Neutral
18-Sep-2013 11-30 PM United States FOMC Economic Projections          
 
19-Sep-2013 12-00 AM United States Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference          
19-Sep-2013 07-30 PM United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) 5.25M 5.39M -0.14 0.16 Bad
19-Sep-2013 08-00 PM United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change   65B   33.60  
 
20-Sep-2013 11-00 AM India RBI Cash Reserve Ratio   4.0%   0.07  
20-Sep-2013 11-00 AM India RBI Repurchase Rate   7.25%   0.09  
20-Sep-2013 11-00 AM India RBI Reverse Repo Rate   6.25%   0.09  


Tuesday, September 10, 2013

India's gold imports crashed 95% in August to just 2.5 tonne from month before, easing pressure on policymakers as they struggle to contain the depreciation of the rupee while addressing an elevated current account deficit (CAD).

India's gold imports crashed 95% in August to just 2.5 tonne from month before, easing pressure on policymakers as they struggle to contain the depreciation of the rupee while addressing an elevated current account deficit (CAD).
India's gold imports crashed 95% in August to just 2.5 tonne from month before, easing pressure on policymakers as they struggle to contain the depreciation of the rupee while addressing an elevated current account deficit (CAD).
Bullion industry executives said gold purchases from abroad tumbled last month as lack of clarity on recent central bank guidelines on imports, coupled with an absence of festivals, curbed demand from jewellers in the world’s top consumer.
The imports last month slumped from 47.5 tonne in July, 31.5 tonne in June, 162 tonne in May and 142.50 tonne in April, according to official data.
The government aims to reduce the CAD from $88 billion, or 4.8% of the gross domestic product (GDP), last fiscal to $70 billion, or 3.7% of the GDP, in 2013-14, and is desperately attempting to curb non-essential imports, including those of gold, to achieve the target.
Compounding the government’s worry, the rupee has depreciated by more than 20% so far this fiscal.
Gold imports stopped after July 22 due to confusion over a rule issued by the Reserve Bank of India, which required importers to re-export at least 20% of all the purchases from overseas, and jewellers started using stocks that had piled up in April and May following record imports of 304.5 tonne.
Although the RBI rule was aimed at curbing the flow of gold into the country and not to stop it, the importing agencies took time to get a grasp on the many operational procedures involved, including the undertaking that needs to be submitted to the customs department once the goods are delivered to an exporter for the next lot of imports.
On August 14, the central bank clarified on the operational part of its gold import norms issued in July following which traders started firming up deals.
Last week, the customs authority also explained the changes in sync with the RBI notification.
Imports may again rise to around 30 tonne in September, as jewellers usually start building inventory to cater to the requirement during the festival and marriage season from October, said a senior executive with the Bombay Bullion association.
Although imports may rise, the pace of growth will remain subdued compared with a year earlier due to the government crackdown on overseas purchases, said Sanjeev Agrawal, chief executive, Gitanjali Export Corporation.

Weekly Economic Data for the week 07-Sep-13 to 13-Sep-13

Exp.:Expected or Anticipated value calculated from the recent survey conducted.
Prior:Represents the last actual for each indicator. In case there is a revision to the last actual, the prior column reflects the prior figure as revised.
Exp. change today:Exp. - Prior
Avg. change of last 1 year:Average Change in Actual data calculated for last 1 year.
Expected impact on price:This indicator shows the effect of the anticipation of data on the prices of related country’s major indices. We have categorized it as below:
Very GoodGoodNeutralBadVery Bad
Actual:Refers to the actual/latest figures after its release.
Data for the week 07-Sep-13 to 13-Sep-13
DateTime (IST)CountryDataExp.PriorExp. chg todayAvg. chg of last 1 yearExp. Impact on Price
08-Sep-201307-30 AMChinaTrade Balance20.000B17.818B2.1813.34Neutral
08-Sep-201307-30 AMChinaExports (YoY)6.0%5.1%0.90%5.65Neutral
08-Sep-201307-30 AMChinaImports (YoY)11.3%10.9%0.40%6.92Neutral
 
09-Sep-201307-00 AMChinaConsumer Price Index (YoY)2.6%2.7%-0.10%0.43Neutral
09-Sep-201307-00 AMChinaProducer Price Index (YoY)-1.7%-2.3%0.60%0.61Good
09-Sep-201307-00 AMChinaM2 Money Supply (YoY)14.6%14.5%0.10%0.59Neutral
 
10-16-Sep-2013-IndiaImports YoY -6.20%  
10-16-Sep-2013-IndiaExports YoY 11.6%  
10-Sep-201311-00 AMChinaIndustrial Production (YoY)9.9%9.7%0.20%0.67Neutral
10-Sep-201311-00 AMChinaRetail Sales (YoY)13.3%13.2%0.10%0.78Neutral
 
11-Sep-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Crude Oil Stocks change -1.836M 3.45 
 
09-Sep-2013-European Monetary UnionDraghi Speaks in latvia     
12-Sep-201305-30 PMIndiaManufacturing Output-1.0%-2.20%1.20%5.33Neutral
12-Sep-201308-00 PMUnited StatesEIA Natural Gas Storage change 58B 33.60 
 
13-14-Sep-2013-European Monetary UnionEuro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Vilnius. Lithuania     
13-Sep-201306-00 PMUnited StatesProducer Price Index (MoM)0.2%0.0%0.20%0.65Neutral
13-Sep-201306-00 PMUnited StatesRetail Sales (MoM)0.4%0.2%0.20%0.63Neutral
13-Sep-201307-25 PMUnited StatesReuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index8282.1-0.103.26Neutral